Why 2020 might be a most disruptive year
The last 24 hours have been full with headlines like “Uber CEO To Tesla: Sell Me Half A Million Autonomous Electric Cars In 2020”. But what does it actually mean? I think it might mean one of the biggest disruptions to individual mobility ever - and to energy.
What happens if Uber operates 500,000 autonomous Teslas in 2020?
If this really happens, it might significantly reduce the number of cars owned and put a lot of taxi drivers, car manufacturers, car sharers and garages out of business. The disruption might be as big as the invention of horseback riding, the wheel and carriage and the car itself.
Life today is like this. If you want to go somewhere, you check whether public transport is convenient, taking into account aspects like walking distance to and from the stations, schedule and travel time, price, and if you have anything to carry. If the convenience of public transport is good enough, you use it. Else you use your car or call a taxi.
Life with Uber-run Tesla cars would look like this: If you want to go somewhere, you check whether public transport is convenient, taking into account aspects like walking distance to and from the stations, schedule and travel time, price, and if you have anything to carry. If the convenience of public transport is good enough, you use it. Else you use your Uber App to get an Uber Tesla.
If you can get an Uber Tesla via the Uber App anywhere anytime, why would you still need to own a car? Already as of today, in a lot of urban regions, progress is measured by how many people no longer have a car. Car sharing has become popular. The primary reason for car sharing is being able to use the benefits of individual transport without the hassle of owning a car yourself (cost, taxes, maintenance).
Ah yes, people will get unemployed - taxi drivers, car manufacturers, car sharers, garages. But for the sake of our planet, this is exactly what we need.
What else happens when Tesla takes over?
Another thing that happens is electricity will become much cheaper - despite electric cars. The electricity of today is quite expensive because it’s not renewable. Renewable energies, like solar and wind, are expensive because they’re not available when needed, they’re available when the sun shines or wind blows. Both, renewable and non-renewable energies are expensive because they need electricity to be transported over large distances.
With the Tesla Powerwall http://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall, which should become quite popular by 2020, these problems are partially solved and partially reduced.